Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcfae…9ded crypto 125 markets active 6h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$722 (+12%) realized +$678 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%24W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$429
14 days+$388
30 days+$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$469
crypto 38% −$414
world 24% +$1,307
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -69.0% -72.0% 12% 12% -80.0%
≤30d 120 -34.3% -40.5% 20% 18% -2.9%
≤90d 120 -34.3% -40.5% 20% 18% -2.9%
all 120 -34.3% -40.5% 20% 18% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 18% -2.9%
10% -46.2% 17% -12.2%
15% -51.4% 16% -20.7%
20% -56.2% 15% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$27 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$678
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses24 / 96
Open positions5
Markets (closed)120 / 125
History coverage26d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $50 $117 +$67 (+134%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $50 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -27%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $22 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$11 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 09 $110 +$889 +805%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 02 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $114 −$38 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $15 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 0¢ $15 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $15 6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $30 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.00 · official $142.00 (match) · 377 history records