Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CF 0xcfae…f512 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-2%) realized −$103 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$723per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$915now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$451
world 38% +$87
politics 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 1 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 4 -44.6% -49.9% 25% 0% -25.8%
all 5 -35.6% -41.7% 40% 0% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 0% -20.6%
10% -47.3% 0% -28.2%
15% -52.4% 0% -35.1%
20% -57.1% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$169 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$915
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage96d
Avg bet$723
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $890 $903 +$12 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 95¢ $5 $12 +$8 (+164%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $939 −$30 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $867 +$82 +10%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $521 −$441 -85%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 15 $1,071 +$5 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $909 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $908 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $939 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $944 7h
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $706 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $35 56d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $35 56d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $35 56d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $35 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $80 58d
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $80 58d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $98 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $311 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $301 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $301 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $213 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $267 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $140 64d
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $521 94d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $521 94d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $556 94d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $556 95d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $516 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $914.67 · official $914.67 (match) · 30 history records