Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfb1…f694
crypto · 224 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$14,333 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14,333 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$14,333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses151 / 571
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)722 / 224
History coverage2d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day1883.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 722 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,333
7 days−$14,333
14 days−$14,333
30 days−$14,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$31 +521%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -926%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$5 -2513%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -1886%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$2 -355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$133 -172530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$56 -839%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$4 -589%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$30 +638%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$37 -1036%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$25 -1159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$90 -963%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -1997%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$9 -1557%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$83 -1493%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$161 -1508%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$8 -3377%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$8 +3400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$16 -776%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$71 -1072%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$23 -4184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$14 -1280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $147 −$379 -258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$76 -954%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$193 -1119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$5 -1444%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -5904%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$14 -3766%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$44 -1281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -2096%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$12 -554%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$101 -757%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$239 -1061%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$59 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$2 -249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$36 -198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$28 -686%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$48 -1366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$9 -1302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$42 -974%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$22 -851%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$109 -855%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$41 -1530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 +$2 +2841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$29 -860%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$19 -1656%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$42 -2545%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -873%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -1500%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$14 -1406%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$710
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $24 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 722 +64.2% +48.5% 21% 10% -12.4%
≤30d 722 +64.2% +48.5% 21% 10% -12.4%
≤90d 722 +64.2% +48.5% 21% 10% -12.4%
all 722 +64.2% +48.5% 21% 10% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1883.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.5% 10% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here +34.3% 10% -20.8%
15% +21.3% 10% -28.5%
20% +9.4% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.89 · official $10.89 (match) · 3500 history records