Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfb6…06da
other · 12 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
+$248,113 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$280,898 · open −$43,845
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$455,675
Realized+$280,898
Unrealized−$43,845
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$8,740
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$110,593
Trades / day837.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 6 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$667,123
7 days+$280,898
14 days+$280,898
30 days+$280,898
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $294,982 $261,263 −$33,719 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $65,946 $62,400 −$3,546 (-5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $71,562 $58,900 −$12,662 (-18%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 48¢ 50¢ $40,726 $42,208 +$1,481 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13,006 $18,555 +$5,549 (+43%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13,299 $12,349 −$950 (-7%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 0¢ $152,199 $0 −$152,199 (-100%)
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $2,608 $0 −$2,608 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ 0¢ $234,026 $0 −$234,026 (-100%)
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $51,367 $0 −$51,367 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,608 −$2,608 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Jun 14 $51,367 −$51,367 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19,462 +$80,538 +414%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $179,542 +$220,897 +123%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $97,596 +$132,404 +136%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $243,052 +$193,204 +80%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $85,945 +$94,055 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $153,208 −$152,199 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $235,868 −$234,026 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% −$191,540
other 50% +$482,567
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $4,273 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $8,546 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $145 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $13 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $26 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $9 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $8 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $55 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $81 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $370 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $81 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,014 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $15 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $237 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $237 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2,957 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6,064 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $468 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $102 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $8 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +51.3% +36.9% 56% 56% +14.3%
≤30d 9 +51.3% +36.9% 56% 56% +14.3%
≤90d 9 +51.3% +36.9% 56% 56% +14.3%
all 9 +51.3% +36.9% 56% 56% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover837.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.9% 56% +14.3%
10% +23.8% 56% +3.4%
15% ← realistic here +11.8% 56% -6.6%
20% +0.8% 56% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455,675.35 · official $455,762.05 (match) · 3500 history records