Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcfbc…49fd world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$22 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$471per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.5%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$7 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$471
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $453 $451 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 26 $451 −$15 -3%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 24 $471 $0 +0%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? Jun 20 $487 −$2 -0%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $494 −$5 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 91¢ $453 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $424 2h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $13 2h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $18 2h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $433 2h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 92¢ $471 46h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 92¢ $471 2d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $486 5d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $487 5d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $488 6d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $494 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.69 · official $450.69 (match) · 11 history records