Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcfbc…aa33 crypto 148 markets active 3h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-7%) realized −$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%44W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$4
crypto 35% −$28
sports 25% −$50
world 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -4.3% -13.5% 28% 26% -22.7%
≤30d 146 -7.9% -16.7% 30% 24% -19.0%
≤90d 146 -7.9% -16.7% 30% 24% -19.0%
all 146 -7.9% -16.7% 30% 24% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 24% -19.0%
10% -24.7% 22% -26.8%
15% -32.0% 21% -33.8%
20% -38.6% 18% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses44 / 102
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage30d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 23¢ 22¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$11 +84%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$30 +118%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 +$20 +239%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 +$22 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$59 +217%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +149%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +413%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$7 +183%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $4 +$8 +203%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$57 +1386%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -34%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 23¢ $7 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $12 8h
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $10 16h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 19h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $10 27h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 40h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $24 40h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $51 41h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 97¢ $28 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 42h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $69 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $49 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 47h
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 47h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.42 · official $18.42 (match) · 397 history records