Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CF 0xcfbd…af77 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$90 (+176%) realized +$91 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +292% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +241% what you keep after slip

Net edge+241%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+255.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+292.4%	+255.1%	100%	100%	+255.1%
≤30d	3	+292.4%	+255.1%	100%	100%	+255.1%
≤90d	3	+292.4%	+255.1%	100%	100%	+255.1%
all	3	+292.4%	+255.1%	100%	100%	+255.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+255.1%	100%	+255.1%
10%	+221.1%	100%	+221.1%
15%	+190.1%	100%	+190.1%
20%	+161.6%	100%	+161.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +292% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +292% · $-wt +292% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$19

Realized+$91

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$25	+246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$33	+324%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$31	+307%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$35	8h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$43	11h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$42	13h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.26 · official $19.26 (match) · 8 history records