Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcfbe…78ae crypto 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+1%) realized +$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%152W / 8L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$54
14 days−$53
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 35 -3.3% -12.5% 94% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 103 +0.3% -9.3% 93% 1% -10.2%
all 160 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.3% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$58 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses152 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 160
History coverage102d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$125 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $125 +$7 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$5 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $126 +$7 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $125 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $299 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $245 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $25 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 24 $1 +$4 +374%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 24 $6 −$3 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 24 $127 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 24 $150 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $126 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $125 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $125 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $125 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $125 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $126 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $125 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $299 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $245 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 351 history records