Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcfc0…6c2a other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-23%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -3.9%
≤30d 4 -36.7% -42.7% 50% 0% -26.4%
≤90d 4 -36.7% -42.7% 50% 0% -26.4%
all 4 -36.7% -42.7% 50% 0% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.7% 0% -26.4%
10% -48.2% 0% -33.4%
15% -53.2% 0% -39.9%
20% -57.8% 0% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$26 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage19d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 24 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $70 −$47 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$4 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.35 · official $50.35 (match) · 11 history records