Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfc7…76c4 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%23W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$33
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$17
other 23% −$34
sports 18% +$1
world 8% −$3
finance 7% −$3
crypto 7% −$5
culture 5% −$6
economics 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 74 -1.1% -10.5% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 122 -0.7% -10.2% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 143 -0.6% -10.1% 16% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses23 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage102d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 90¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 20 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $125 −$2 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $253 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $588 −$3 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $64 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $12 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $774 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $39 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $55 $0 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $49 −$13 -28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $52 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 07 $55 +$5 +8%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $50 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $256 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 05 $40 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $65 −$4 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 04 $55 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $55 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $59 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $60 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 14h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $54 15h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $55 23h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 24h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $62 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 35h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $39 36h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $39 40h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $34 41h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $34 47h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 47h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $42 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $46 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $47 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $47 3d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 3d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.88 · official $54.89 (match) · 525 history records