Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfc9…da4c
crypto · 550 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$424 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$287 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses210 / 339
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)549 / 550
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day556.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 549 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$287
14 days−$287
30 days−$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +88%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 +$4 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $65 −$65 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $18 +$15 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -43%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -67%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -32%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$98
sports 11% −$108
weather 7% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 55¢ $1 3m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $0 23m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 23m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 23m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 23m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 63¢ $1 23m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 63¢ $1 23m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 62¢ $1 24m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 25m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 25m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 25m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 25m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 25m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 25m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 25m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 25m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $1 25m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 62¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 62¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $1 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 549 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 26% -21.8%
≤30d 549 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 26% -21.8%
≤90d 549 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 26% -21.8%
all 549 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 26% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover556.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 26% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 20% -29.3%
15% -36.8% 17% -36.1%
20% -43.0% 16% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.68 · official $11.79 (match) · 3500 history records