Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CF 0xcfca…5a0d sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$63 (+3%) realized +$136 · open −$73

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%11W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$88per market

Trades / day8.2pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit84%portable

Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-10.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-1.2%	-10.6%	52%	52%	-7.4%
≤30d	21	-1.2%	-10.6%	52%	52%	-7.4%
≤90d	21	-1.2%	-10.6%	52%	52%	-7.4%
all	21	-1.2%	-10.6%	52%	52%	-7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.6%	52%	-7.4%
10%	-19.2%	52%	-16.3%
15%	-27.0%	52%	-24.4%
20%	-34.1%	38%	-31.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +17% → late -18% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$77 vs −$81 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.06 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$137

Realized+$136

Unrealized−$73

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses11 / 10

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions4

Markets (closed)21 / 25

History coverage4d

Avg bet$88

Trades / day8.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	35¢	97¢	$19	$53	+$34 (+176%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5	Over	59¢	26¢	$97	$42	−$55 (-57%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	54¢	50¢	$46	$42	−$4 (-8%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	58¢	0¢	$48	$0	−$48 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$149	+$54	+36%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$24	+$26	+105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$98	−$96	-98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 18	$73	+$26	+36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$81	−$80	-98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$146	+$160	+109%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$46	−$45	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$98	−$97	-99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$174	−$172	-99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$127	+$151	+119%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$11	−$11	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 17	$23	−$23	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 17	$78	−$78	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$87	−$87	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$117	−$117	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$195	+$136	+70%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$150	+$54	+36%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$98	+$56	+57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 16	$50	+$36	+73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$25	+$69	+276%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$146	+$83	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$46	14m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	58¢	$49	1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$98	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	SELL FURIA	100¢	$203	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	76¢	$97	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	35¢	$20	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	67¢	$51	2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$50	2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5	BUY Over	48¢	$24	3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	BUY FURIA	45¢	$98	3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL No	100¢	$99	3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY No	73¢	$73	4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	23¢	$25	5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	53¢	$57	6h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	47¢	$146	19h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$46	22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$98	26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	BUY Over	67¢	$174	31h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$127	40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$331	41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	58¢	$195	44h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$204	45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5	BUY Over	73¢	$150	46h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	BUY Over	63¢	$98	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$87	2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Natus Vincere	47¢	$78	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$117	3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	100¢	$229	3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	57¢	$50	3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	63¢	$146	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.87 · official $136.87 (match) · 64 history records