Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcfd1…928a crypto 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,336 (-14%) realized −$3,313 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%58W / 96L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$305
7 days−$87
14 days−$87
30 days+$1,226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$2,397
crypto 26% −$1,317
tech 11% −$82
sports 9% +$1,215
politics 4% −$775
world 2% +$8
culture 1% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +48.0% +33.9% 13% 13% -29.7%
≤30d 17 +50.0% +35.8% 24% 24% +15.3%
≤90d 17 +50.0% +35.8% 24% 24% +15.3%
all 154 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 34% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 34% -23.3%
10% -22.1% 29% -30.7%
15% -29.6% 21% -37.4%
20% -36.5% 18% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$91 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$3,313
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses58 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions7
Markets (closed)154 / 161
History coverage217d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $110 $105 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$5 (-9%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+35%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Senegal? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Ecuador? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $3 +$315 +10690%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 3 England? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $205 −$192 -94%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $19 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $116 −$113 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $49 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $990 +$131 +13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $950 +$606 +64%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1,045 +$707 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7AM ET Mar 29 $12 −$10 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6AM ET Mar 29 $84 −$72 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4AM ET Mar 27 $88 −$83 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3AM ET Mar 27 $27 +$79 +297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2AM ET Mar 27 $96 −$16 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1AM ET Mar 27 $342 +$143 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12AM ET Mar 27 $65 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 05 $50 −$23 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 05 $50 −$28 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 05 $50 −$25 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 05 $50 −$11 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 05 $13 −$4 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 05 $50 +$13 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 05 $50 −$7 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $50 −$35 -70%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw? Jan 04 $60 −$14 -23%
Will Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC end in a draw? Jan 04 $34 −$34 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jan 04 $50 −$45 -91%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $50 −$45 -90%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jan 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Genoa CFC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jan 03 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $50 +$26 +52%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $50 +$48 +95%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $50 +$43 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 03 $60 +$186 +310%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $50 −$37 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 02 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $60 −$54 -89%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Jan 02 $10 +$24 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 3 England? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 3 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $49 3d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1,120 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $990 18d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $1,556 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.21 · official $268.21 (match) · 622 history records