Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfd1…deba politics 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+6%) realized +$0 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% +$1
world 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -20.8% -28.4% 0% 0% -28.4%
≤90d 1 -20.8% -28.4% 0% 0% -28.4%
all 1 -20.8% -28.4% 0% 0% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 0% -28.4%
10% -35.2% 0% -35.2%
15% -41.5% 0% -41.5%
20% -47.2% 0% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage49d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 85¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 94¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+130%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2 $0 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.81 · official $13.79 (match) · 22 history records