Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
CF 0xcfd2…8e36 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$438 (+17%) realized +$403 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$410
7 days+$814
14 days+$604
30 days+$421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$324
other 36% +$145
crypto 4% −$4
world 2% $0
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +113.1% +92.8% 50% 50% +71.9%
≤30d 22 +39.8% +26.5% 32% 32% +19.5%
≤90d 22 +39.8% +26.5% 32% 32% +19.5%
all 22 +39.8% +26.5% 32% 32% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.5% 32% +19.5%
10% +14.4% 32% +8.1%
15% +3.3% 32% -2.3%
20% -6.8% 32% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +139% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$59 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized+$403
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions10
Markets (closed)22 / 40
History coverage19d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 10¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+58%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes $70 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Yes $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$150 +292%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $51 +$306 +596%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$121 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$166 +325%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $146 −$139 -95%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $31 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $72 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $31 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $201 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $16 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY $51 20h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $31 27h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY $51 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY $51 27h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? AND Exact Score: England 2 - 1 BUY $103 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Sprea BUY 35¢ $102 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY $51 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 41¢ $102 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.98 · official $664.98 (match) · 61 history records