Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CF 0xcfd2…68b0 crypto 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,679 (-14%) realized −$1,667 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%40W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$368
7 days+$368
14 days+$368
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$2,325
other 9% +$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +42.3% +28.8% 22% 22% +42.3%
≤30d 20 -6.9% -15.8% 25% 25% -14.5%
≤90d 99 -9.8% -18.3% 40% 38% -24.4%
all 99 -9.8% -18.3% 40% 38% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 38% -24.4%
10% -26.2% 34% -31.7%
15% -33.3% 30% -38.3%
20% -39.8% 27% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$102 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized−$1,667
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 59
Open positions4
Markets (closed)99 / 103
History coverage76d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-5%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $153 +$373 +243%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $61 −$44 -71%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $51 −$29 -56%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $51 −$24 -47%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $107 −$104 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $51 +$365 +712%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $207 −$197 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 22 $105 −$95 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 22 $105 −$98 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 22 $71 −$68 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 22 $104 +$101 +96%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 22 $104 −$88 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 22 $204 +$253 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 22 $115 −$109 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 22 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 22 $105 +$27 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 22 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 16 $397 −$380 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 16 $40 −$36 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 16 $65 −$62 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 16 $105 −$93 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 16 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 16 $149 +$10 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $49 +$62 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $53 −$47 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 16 $105 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 07 $211 +$165 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 07 $42 −$40 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 07 $102 −$97 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 04 $105 +$53 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 04 $210 +$145 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 04 $303 +$33 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 04 $84 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 04 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 04 $301 +$103 +34%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 04 $158 −$99 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 04 $106 −$100 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 02 $106 −$89 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 02 $52 +$77 +147%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 02 $53 −$44 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 02 $104 −$94 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 02 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 30 $211 −$211 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 30 $105 +$106 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $97 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $97 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $526 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 31¢ $71 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 3¢ $23 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $27 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $61 12h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $206 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $10 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $7 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $19 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $205 29d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $16 29d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.34 · official $370.34 (match) · 239 history records