Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfd7…aaba crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$420 (-28%) realized −$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$560
other 14% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +8.2% -2.1% 57% 47% -44.4%
≤30d 30 +8.2% -2.1% 57% 47% -44.4%
≤90d 30 +8.2% -2.1% 57% 47% -44.4%
all 30 +8.2% -2.1% 57% 47% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 47% -44.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.4% 47% -49.8%
15% -20.0% 47% -54.6%
20% -27.8% 33% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$61 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$20 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $203 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$65 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $103 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $103 −$93 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$9 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records