Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfdb…34aa other 250 markets active 5h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 234L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$29
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$37
sports 24% −$21
politics 9% −$9
crypto 7% −$7
culture 7% −$7
world 6% −$5
economics 5% −$10
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage132d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $378 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $297 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $908 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $267 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $505 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $300 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $175 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $312 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $848 −$3 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $288 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $234 −$2 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $121 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $454 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $615 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 5h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 7h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $1 7h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 8h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $10 10h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 14h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 16h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 20h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 22h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 23h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 24h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 29h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 35h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 36h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 38h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 40h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 42h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 43h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 47h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1346 history records