Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfdb…1548 other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,024 (+1%) realized +$1,023 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%36W / 100L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,056per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1,626
politics 40% −$67
sports 10% −$490
culture 3% −$5
economics 2% −$2
world 2% −$57
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 54 +2.4% -7.4% 9% 2% -7.6%
all 136 -1.9% -11.2% 26% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -8.9%
10% -19.7% 9% -17.6%
15% -27.5% 8% -25.6%
20% -34.6% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,393) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$13 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,153
Realized+$1,023
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses36 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,056
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $906 $908 +$1 (+0%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $245 $245 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $2,944 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $294 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $292 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $1,225 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,200 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,630 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,071 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 07 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,090 −$6 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,042 −$4 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 01 $946 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $484 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $879 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,527 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 15 $1,426 +$1,890 +133%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,833 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 02 $439 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $574 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,360 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,318 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,041 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,596 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $7,593 −$8 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,334 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $245 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $234 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $234 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $294 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $294 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $291 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $292 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,224 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,225 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $906 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,660 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,663 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,535 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,537 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,627 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,630 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,550 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,553 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,678 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,679 16d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,535 19d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,538 20d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,586 21d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,589 21d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,584 23d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,587 24d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,683 24d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,686 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,152.54 · official $1,152.54 (match) · 409 history records