Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfdc…3895
other · 50 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$12 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage132d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 5 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 58¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US strike ≤1 countries in February 2026? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? Up 86¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Play-In T1 Academy 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? Feb 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 15 $3 $0 -1%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Feb 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $2 $0 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? Feb 13 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 08 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $1 $0 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX - Game 1 Winner Feb 07 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 07 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Feb 07 $2 $0 +12%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $1 $0 -9%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Feb 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 03 $3 $0 -3%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Clippers Feb 03 $4 $0 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Feb 03 $2 $0 +2%
Rockets vs. Pacers Feb 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-02? Feb 03 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 2 Feb 02 $3 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Feb 02 $3 −$1 -29%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gros Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $2 $0 -21%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Feb 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-07? Feb 02 $1 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Feb 02 $1 $0 +26%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Feb 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $1 $0 +12%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 01 $2 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 01 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the US strike ≤1 countries in February 2026? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 01 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% +$2
crypto 22% −$8
sports 22% −$3
politics 10% −$3
world 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 86¢ $3 117d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 SELL No 89¢ $3 117d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 BUY No 90¢ $3 118d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M SELL Yes 89¢ $3 118d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M BUY Yes 66¢ $1 118d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M BUY Yes 66¢ $1 118d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 118d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $2 119d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY Yes 87¢ $2 119d
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 119d
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 124d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $1 124d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $1 125d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 125d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? SELL No 56¢ $2 125d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? BUY No 43¢ $2 125d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 125d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 125d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 125d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 125d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 74¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 125d
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season SELL GAM Esports 72¢ $2 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +58.0% +42.9% 100% 50% +8.1%
≤30d 2 +58.0% +42.9% 100% 50% +8.1%
≤90d 2 +58.0% +42.9% 100% 50% +8.1%
all 45 -15.6% -23.6% 47% 31% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 31% -23.7%
10% -31.0% 18% -31.0%
15% -37.6% 9% -37.7%
20% -43.7% 7% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.36 · official $5.36 (match) · 105 history records