Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfdc…5a2e world 559 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 319d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$659 (+1%) realized +$291 · open +$368
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%274W / 196L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$8,627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$1,187
14 days−$839
30 days−$2,193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$690
other 27% +$1,733
sports 5% −$38
politics 5% −$885
finance 5% −$377
crypto 3% +$245
tech 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -37.0% -43.0% 0% 0% -40.8%
≤30d 84 -16.8% -24.7% 38% 11% -19.7%
≤90d 293 -0.5% -10.0% 55% 23% -11.1%
all 470 +0.6% -9.0% 58% 29% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 29% -8.0%
10% -17.7% 17% -16.8%
15% -25.7% 13% -24.8%
20% -32.9% 10% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$27 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$8,627
Realized+$291
Unrealized+$368
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses274 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions89
Markets (closed)470 / 559
History coverage320d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 89 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $892 $994 +$101 (+11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $504 $543 +$39 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $519 $505 −$13 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $454 $482 +$28 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $445 $458 +$13 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 99¢ $344 $383 +$39 (+11%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $367 $376 +$9 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $266 $276 +$10 (+4%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $249 $265 +$16 (+7%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 82¢ $220 $254 +$34 (+15%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $219 $215 −$4 (-2%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 95¢ $180 $208 +$28 (+15%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 57¢ 52¢ $229 $208 −$22 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $146 $197 +$51 (+35%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $178 $189 +$11 (+6%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 77¢ 80¢ $170 $177 +$7 (+4%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 69¢ 80¢ $139 $159 +$20 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $175 $152 −$22 (-13%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $131 $149 +$18 (+14%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 85¢ 92¢ $137 $149 +$12 (+9%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $144 $149 +$5 (+3%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes 70¢ 47¢ $210 $142 −$68 (-32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $104 $127 +$23 (+22%)
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 95¢ 78¢ $152 $125 −$27 (-18%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 32¢ 50¢ $78 $121 +$43 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,024 −$360 -35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1,559 −$38 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? Jun 13 $834 −$787 -94%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $56 +$4 +7%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $168 +$132 +79%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $295 +$7 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $987 +$161 +16%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 03 $118 +$4 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $145 +$40 +28%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 31 $216 −$9 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $182 −$57 -32%
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? May 31 $166 +$13 +8%
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? May 26 $384 +$6 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $195 −$15 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 24 $92 −$50 -54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 24 $88 −$64 -73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $34 −$18 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $14 −$7 -50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 24 $112 −$34 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 24 $57 −$15 -26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? May 24 $254 −$68 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 24 $22 −$13 -59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 24 $141 −$86 -61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 24 $189 −$87 -46%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? May 24 $295 −$34 -12%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 24 $1,370 +$141 +10%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 24 $31 −$15 -49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 24 $124 −$46 -37%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 24 $430 −$106 -24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 24 $331 −$188 -57%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 24 $286 −$33 -12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $18 −$16 -86%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $566 −$173 -30%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 24 $83 −$59 -71%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $158 −$4 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $224 −$46 -21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $47 +$24 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $100 −$12 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,244 −$50 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $9 −$1 -16%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele May 23 $145 −$91 -63%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $20 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $106 +$4 +4%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15? May 22 $95 −$40 -42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 22 $14 +$3 +23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 22 $8 $0 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 22 $170 +$4 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $511 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 47¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 67¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $173 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $42 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $225 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,627.35 · official $8,627.35 (match) · 3500 history records