Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfde…3f9c
sports · 326 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$19,991 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,991 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$19,991
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses138 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$666
Open positions0
Markets (closed)326 / 326
History coverage611d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 0 History 326 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,086
7 days+$555
14 days+$643
30 days+$1,076
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $740 $0 −$740 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 30¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-3.5) Santa Clara Broncos 43¢ 0¢ $206 $0 −$206 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner LOUD 13¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Top Esports 31¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Red Force 32¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner JD Gaming 23¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 35¢ 0¢ $980 $0 −$980 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner BNK FEARX 69¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 October 6-12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Top Esports 20¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Shifters 29¢ 0¢ $979 $0 −$979 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Season CTBC Flying Oyster 42¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 37¢ 0¢ $4,194 $0 −$4,194 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $908 $0 −$908 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner LYON 4¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $790 −$790 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $413 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $158 +$147 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $519 +$557 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$7 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $993 +$988 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $109 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $539 +$539 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $290 +$251 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $43 +$35 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $76 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $43 +$39 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $72 +$66 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $43 +$41 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $65 −$63 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $269 +$251 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 04 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $13 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 03 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $155 −$59 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $36 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $19 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $40 −$23 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 03 $114 +$90 +79%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $102 +$168 +165%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 17 $4,273 −$4,194 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $517 −$517 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 17 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1,022 +$2,824 +276%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 16 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 15 $1,018 +$1,397 +137%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 15 $995 +$2,655 +267%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $1,009 +$2,099 +208%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 12 $2,534 −$2,484 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% −$17,638
other 9% +$764
crypto 9% −$2,342
politics 3% −$572
world 2% −$1
finance 0% −$202
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $233 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $247 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $158 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $519 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $206 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 62¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $951 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $97 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $539 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $119 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $171 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $43 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $70 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.4% -28.9% 41% 41% +1.7%
≤30d 49 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 47% -4.3%
≤90d 95 -11.8% -20.2% 40% 37% -22.9%
all 326 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 35% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 35% -21.3%
10% -28.7% 33% -28.8%
15% -35.6% 33% -35.7%
20% -41.9% 25% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 884 history records