Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfe0…5e8b other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-23%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$97
sports 29% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-81.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -79.8% -81.7% 0% 0% -73.7%
≤30d 3 -79.8% -81.7% 0% 0% -73.7%
≤90d 3 -79.8% -81.7% 0% 0% -73.7%
all 3 -79.8% -81.7% 0% 0% -73.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.7% 0% -73.7%
10% -83.5% 0% -76.2%
15% -85.1% 0% -78.5%
20% -86.6% 0% -80.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$54 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage3d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 −$43 -40%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $55 −$53 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $67 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $67 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $110 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 22¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 4 history records