Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfe6…748f other 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+0%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%145W / 53L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$201
14 days+$211
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$2,344
weather 8% −$2,472
sports 2% +$242
crypto 1% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -53.2% -57.7% 32% 21% +0.4%
≤30d 20 -50.5% -55.2% 35% 20% -2.8%
≤90d 56 -26.2% -33.3% 59% 21% -9.8%
all 198 -12.3% -20.7% 73% 18% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 18% -9.5%
10% -28.3% 11% -18.1%
15% -35.2% 9% -26.0%
20% -41.5% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$586) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$97 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses145 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)198 / 186
History coverage158d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 198 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $119 +$49 +41%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,112 +$88 +8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $250 +$10 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $71 +$29 +41%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $104 +$96 +92%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $49 +$51 +103%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 02 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 01 $106 −$89 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Apr 30 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $0 $0 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $438 +$62 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $1,327 +$93 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $1,545 +$103 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $108 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $655 +$36 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $18 +$5 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $30 +$15 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $71 +$36 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $211 −$6 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $270 −$21 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $886 +$18 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $1,919 +$30 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $2,244 +$77 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $998 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $728 +$72 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 02 $2,526 −$1,228 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Mar 31 $659 +$41 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Mar 30 $103 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $2,496 +$92 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 29 $552 +$59 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 29 $887 +$226 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $64 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $116 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 93¢ $771 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 93¢ $130 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 93¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $250 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $6 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $15 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $2 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $7 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $75 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $71 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $53 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $49 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $17 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $6 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $8 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $6 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $43 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $990 11d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 49d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 49d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 49d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 49d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 49d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1087 history records