Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfea…ed3f
other · 29 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$53 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20 · open +$34
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$158
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)9 / 29
History coverage49d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit24%
Chart Positions 18 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 90¢ $19 $48 +$29 (+151%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 67¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$11 -70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +58%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 19 $19 +$17 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% +$43
sports 17% +$8
crypto 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3h
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY Yes 34¢ $5 10h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $5 11h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $5 11h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 BUY 53¢ $5 33h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-1 BUY 29¢ $5 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 36h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 69¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +14.7% +3.8% 50% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 9 +23.0% +11.3% 56% 56% +15.5%
≤90d 9 +23.0% +11.3% 56% 56% +15.5%
all 9 +23.0% +11.3% 56% 56% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 56% +15.5%
10% +0.7% 56% +4.5%
15% -9.1% 56% -5.6%
20% -18.0% 33% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.56 · official $157.56 (match) · 44 history records