Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfec…afee weather 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-4%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%68W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$18
14 days−$38
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$69
weather 36% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -34.5% -40.7% 47% 47% -3.6%
≤30d 128 -12.6% -20.9% 47% 45% -12.7%
≤90d 139 -10.1% -18.7% 49% 47% -12.2%
all 139 -10.1% -18.7% 49% 47% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 47% -12.2%
10% -26.4% 40% -20.6%
15% -33.6% 32% -28.3%
20% -40.1% 24% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses68 / 71
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage33d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $60 +$15 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $58 +$8 +14%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $40 +$17 +41%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $30 +$10 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $27 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$6 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$16 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$8 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$10 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 −$5 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -76%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$7 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$10 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$10 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 19 $1 +$3 +269%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$3 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $75 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $60 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $67 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $58 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $57 22h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 70¢ $40 22h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $40 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $30 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $31 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $27 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records