Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfee…67b9
sports · 55 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$244 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$116 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$606
Realized−$116
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 40
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)48 / 55
History coverage20d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 7 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$39
14 days−$26
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $119 −$6 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $99 $104 +$5 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $99 $96 −$3 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $99 $94 −$5 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $99 $94 −$5 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $99 $91 −$8 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $101 −$46 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $133 +$7 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $104 +$14 +14%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 28 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) May 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 168.5 May 28 $5 +$4 +81%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 28 $12 −$7 -59%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 May 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 May 27 $8 +$8 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 May 27 $3 +$2 +91%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 May 27 $7 +$8 +116%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $3 −$1 -47%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 25 $7 −$2 -27%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 25 May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? May 25 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? May 25 $1 $0 -32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 −$1 -55%
Les Wexner charged by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 25 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 27? May 25 $0 $0 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -50%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -43%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $3 −$2 -56%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 25 $9 −$3 -31%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 25 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 25 $3 −$1 -31%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor: Both Teams to Score May 24 $4 $0 +6%
ITF Grado: Sofia Rocchetti vs Federica Trevisan May 24 $11 −$5 -49%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 24 $5 −$1 -13%
SC RASTA Vechta vs. Alba Berlin May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Bejlek vs Sloane Stephens May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 24 $2 $0 -23%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $8 −$2 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $3 $0 -6%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) May 24 $1 $0 -6%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 24 $5 −$1 -24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $5 −$1 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 24 $19 −$13 -65%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $9 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 80% −$46
other 9% −$20
sports 8% −$63
politics 1% −$4
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $55 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $459 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $130 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $12 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $425 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $101 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $101 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $102 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? SELL No 96¢ $1 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY No 96¢ $1 16d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 16d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 17d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 17d
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty BUY Phoenix Mercury 38¢ $4 17d
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty BUY Phoenix Mercury 38¢ $6 17d
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty BUY Phoenix Mercury 37¢ $3 17d
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 54¢ $7 17d
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 54¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 0% -24.6%
≤30d 48 -33.8% -40.1% 17% 12% -28.1%
≤90d 48 -33.8% -40.1% 17% 12% -28.1%
all 48 -33.8% -40.1% 17% 12% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 12% -28.1%
10% -45.9% 10% -34.9%
15% -51.1% 8% -41.2%
20% -55.9% 8% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $606.33 · official $606.36 (match) · 153 history records