Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcff2…5e53 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$437 (-26%) realized −$437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$451
14 days−$451
30 days−$451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$415
sports 11% −$34
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -56.3% -60.5% 23% 16% -25.3%
≤30d 44 -56.3% -60.5% 23% 16% -25.3%
≤90d 44 -56.3% -60.5% 23% 16% -25.3%
all 44 -56.3% -60.5% 23% 16% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.5% 16% -25.3%
10% -64.3% 7% -32.4%
15% -67.7% 5% -38.9%
20% -70.9% 5% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage43d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $98 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -17%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -40%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $172 +$31 +18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $44 −$8 -19%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $237 −$223 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +234%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $148 +$7 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $130 +$18 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 −$55 -90%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $138 −$128 -93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $79 +$58 +74%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 4 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$15 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $99 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 44h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 45h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 66¢ $11 46h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $118 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $85 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $34 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.48 · official $130.48 (match) · 99 history records