Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcff7…7bd6
other · 11 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$112 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$112 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage216d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%
Chart Positions 1 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-26? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) KT Rolster 37¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-03-07? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-05? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 48¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 +$67 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $60 +$83 +140%
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) May 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $25 +$33 +134%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 68% −$92
sports 32% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $128 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $61 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $60 34h
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) BUY Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 48¢ $50 27d
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 38d
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 47d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $58 87d
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 90d
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 90d
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 97d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $54 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +49.6% +35.4% 67% 67% +62.5%
≤30d 4 +12.2% +1.5% 50% 50% +22.3%
≤90d 7 -35.9% -42.0% 29% 29% -31.3%
all 10 -31.7% -38.2% 30% 30% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 30% -32.5%
10% -44.2% 30% -38.9%
15% -49.5% 30% -44.8%
20% -54.5% 30% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.36 · official $59.36 (match) · 14 history records