Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CF 0xcff7…2fb1 weather 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$371 (-11%) realized −$356 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%28W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$151
14 days−$155
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$104
other 34% +$13
sports 6% +$1
finance 5% −$46
politics 5% −$29
crypto 3% $0
world 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -24.1% -31.4% 38% 31% -17.9%
≤30d 74 -23.6% -30.9% 38% 30% -17.9%
≤90d 74 -23.6% -30.9% 38% 30% -17.9%
all 74 -23.6% -30.9% 38% 30% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.9% 30% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -37.5% 26% -25.7%
15% -43.5% 20% -32.9%
20% -49.1% 14% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$732
Realized−$356
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses28 / 46
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions34
Markets (closed)74 / 109
History coverage9d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21? No 32¢ 32¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? No 65¢ 78¢ $70 $84 +$14 (+19%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $54 $68 +$14 (+26%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? Yes 72¢ 73¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? No 64¢ 46¢ $49 $35 −$14 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 21? No 53¢ 48¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-10%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Yes 32¢ 55¢ $16 $27 +$11 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 21? No 75¢ 100¢ $19 $26 +$6 (+33%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? No 37¢ 27¢ $34 $25 −$9 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 21? Yes 64¢ 90¢ $17 $23 +$7 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? No 40¢ 68¢ $9 $16 +$6 (+68%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 21? No 64¢ 98¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? No 60¢ 62¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? No 62¢ 66¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? No 66¢ 66¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? No 58¢ 60¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? No 71¢ 66¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 61¢ 64¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? No 39¢ 37¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? No 43¢ 43¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? No 79¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 −$10 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 +$6 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 +$2 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 21? Jun 21 $9 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 −$3 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $71 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 21 $21 +$70 +338%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $7 +$5 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 21 $42 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 +$13 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 +$3 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 20 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -12%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $9 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$8 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 21? Jun 20 $7 −$6 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 20 $128 −$17 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $9 +$9 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $8 −$5 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $37 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? Jun 20 $161 −$29 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $13 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $11 +$5 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 19 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 +$6 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 19 $40 −$8 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 19 $38 +$23 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 54¢ $25 32m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 51¢ $9 41m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 60¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 40¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 34¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 25¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY No 58¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? BUY No 38¢ $8 2h
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? BUY Yes 70¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY No 79¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 60¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 75¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 75¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 65¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 65¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? BUY No 43¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? BUY No 46¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY No 46¢ $21 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $732.10 · official $730.50 (match) · 501 history records