Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcff9…4975 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$323 (-38%) realized −$280 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -44.3% -49.6% 36% 29% -41.6%
≤30d 14 -44.3% -49.6% 36% 29% -41.6%
≤90d 14 -44.3% -49.6% 36% 29% -41.6%
all 14 -44.3% -49.6% 36% 29% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.6% 29% -41.6%
10% -54.5% 21% -47.2%
15% -58.9% 14% -52.3%
20% -62.9% 14% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$43 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$280
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$42 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $107 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $72 −$71 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $67 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 22 history records