Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CF 0xcffb…fb46 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$7 (-5%) realized −$5 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-35.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-28.1%	-35.0%	25%	25%	-19.1%
≤30d	4	-28.1%	-35.0%	25%	25%	-19.1%
≤90d	4	-28.1%	-35.0%	25%	25%	-19.1%
all	4	-28.1%	-35.0%	25%	25%	-19.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.0%	25%	-19.1%
10%	-41.2%	25%	-26.9%
15%	-46.9%	25%	-33.9%
20%	-52.1%	25%	-40.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized−$5

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	60¢	57¢	$37	$35	−$2 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$37	+$21	+58%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$17	−$1	-4%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$31	−$20	-66%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$38	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	62¢	$16	18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	79¢	$16	18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$17	19h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	62¢	$20	19h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10	19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	17¢	$10	19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	47¢	$31	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.30 · official $35.30 (match) · 10 history records