Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcffc…2a55
sports · 137 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$8,431 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,494 · open +$63
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,720
Realized−$8,494
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses60 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions3
Markets (closed)134 / 137
History coverage596d
Avg bet$532
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$47
14 days+$273
30 days+$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 57¢ 58¢ $3,748 $3,815 +$67 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $810 $805 −$5 (-1%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? No 83¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ 0¢ $1,415 $0 −$1,415 (-100%)
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Waldo Cortes-Acosta 44¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) Joaquin Buckley 62¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Marco Tulio 63¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? No 37¢ 0¢ $405 $0 −$405 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? No 40¢ 0¢ $1,284 $0 −$1,284 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $77 +$43 +56%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $403 +$10 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $199 +$375 +188%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $202 −$55 -27%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $159 +$41 +26%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,423 −$1,415 -99%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 09 $167 −$166 -100%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $64 −$63 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $63 −$62 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 08 $352 +$269 +76%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 08 $761 +$491 +64%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $34 +$66 +194%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $600 −$598 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 08 $1,284 −$1,284 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 08 $407 −$405 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $1,274 +$752 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 08 $92 +$105 +114%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Apr 01 $140 +$60 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Apr 01 $73 +$27 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca Apr 01 $132 +$68 +52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $244 +$56 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 21 $592 +$53 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? Mar 21 $351 −$351 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $283 −$123 -44%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 18 $150 −$12 -8%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 18 $230 −$230 -100%
Mariano vs Jungleman: Higher winnings at Hustler Casino on Friday? Mar 18 $153 −$153 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Mar 18 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Mar 18 $80 −$80 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Mar 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Mar 18 $190 −$190 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Mar 18 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026? Mar 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Mar 18 $526 −$526 -100%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Mar 18 $714 −$714 -100%
Bengals vs. Ravens Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? Mar 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Mar 18 $400 −$400 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 18 $990 +$210 +21%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Mar 09 $346 +$220 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 05 $590 +$253 +43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 05 $816 +$350 +43%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $1,097 +$516 +47%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026? Feb 09 $28 +$36 +128%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026? Feb 09 $25 +$65 +257%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 08 $510 −$150 -29%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Feb 08 $390 +$15 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$3,557
sports 25% −$6,038
politics 17% −$5,761
other 12% −$2,182
crypto 10% +$2,497
finance 1% −$296
economics 0% −$190
tech 0% +$62
culture 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $448 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $815 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $560 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $2,240 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $300 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $330 2d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 59¢ $83 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 73¢ $403 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 6d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 48¢ $102 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $199 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 47¢ $147 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 9d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $201 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $402 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $407 34d
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? BUY No 83¢ $83 34d
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? BUY No 83¢ $83 34d
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) BUY Marco Tulio 63¢ $64 34d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 62¢ $4 34d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 62¢ $58 34d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY King Green 79¢ $159 34d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 44¢ $45 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $412 34d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 58¢ $116 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 33% -16.9%
≤30d 5 +24.0% +12.1% 60% 40% +15.6%
≤90d 42 -36.0% -42.1% 36% 31% -50.1%
all 134 -14.6% -22.7% 45% 43% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 43% -20.8%
10% -30.1% 37% -28.4%
15% -36.9% 35% -35.3%
20% -43.1% 24% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,720.26 · official $4,720.26 (match) · 800 history records