Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfff…673d
weather · 1018 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$18,557 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,546 · open −$6,669
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$446
Realized−$11,546
Unrealized−$6,669
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 103
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions485
Markets (closed)115 / 1018
History coverage2d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1693.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 485 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,546
7 days−$11,546
14 days−$11,546
30 days−$11,546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? No 99¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 81¢ 96¢ $32 $39 +$6 (+19%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? No 86¢ 94¢ $34 $38 +$3 (+10%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? No 95¢ 92¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes 3¢ 73¢ $1 $22 +$21 (+2747%)
Will Ryan Terefenko win the 2026 PLL Hard Hat Award (SSDM)? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+1646%)
Will Dylan Hess win the 2026 PLL Hard Hat Award (SSDM)? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+1646%)
Will Kayda Bosse win Love Island USA Season 8? Yes 5¢ 39¢ $1 $12 +$10 (+758%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 5¢ 14¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+180%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 12? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? No 0¢ 97¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 33¢ 88¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+164%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +1027%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 6? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1000%
Will Filippo Boscagli win the 2026 Lecco mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1102%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1001%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 12 $0 $0 +501%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1000%
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1005%
Will "Dane Laffrey" win Best Scenic Design of a Musical at the 2026 To Jun 12 $0 $0 +1102%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $716 −$716 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $507 −$507 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$29 -78%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $428 −$428 -100%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $451 −$451 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $237 −$237 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $146 −$146 -100%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $319 −$319 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $353 −$353 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $84 −$79 -94%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $182 −$182 -100%
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$18 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $414 −$414 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $175 −$173 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 −$6 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $57 −$56 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 33% −$4,509
other 26% −$10,421
politics 12% −$1,560
tech 11% −$487
finance 6% −$713
sports 5% −$25
world 3% −$75
culture 2% −$366
economics 1% −$59
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less SELL Yes 0¢ $1 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 41¢ $13 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $29 1m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? BUY No 90¢ $68 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 95¢ $29 1m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 96¢ $31 2m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 98¢ $29 2m
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $20 3m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 35¢ $11 3m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market cl BUY No 100¢ $10 4m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 5¢ $1 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $5 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 88¢ $19 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? BUY No 98¢ $49 7m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 88¢ $66 7m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 85¢ $192 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $28 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $29 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $29 8m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $30 8m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? BUY No 98¢ $8 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 4¢ $1 8m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 97¢ $29 9m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $19 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $29 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $28 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $30 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +25.1% +13.1% 10% 10% -99.4%
≤30d 115 +25.1% +13.1% 10% 10% -99.4%
≤90d 115 +25.1% +13.1% 10% 10% -99.4%
all 115 +25.1% +13.1% 10% 10% -99.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1693.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.1% 10% -99.4%
10% ← realistic here +2.3% 10% -99.4%
15% -7.6% 10% -99.5%
20% -16.6% 10% -99.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.86 · official $438.74 · 3500 history records