Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd003…8341 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$307 (-44%) realized −$277 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$330
sports 40% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 71% 43% +2.3%
≤30d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 71% 43% +2.3%
≤90d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 71% 43% +2.3%
all 11 -29.3% -36.0% 45% 27% -52.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 27% -52.9%
10% -42.1% 18% -57.4%
15% -47.7% 9% -61.5%
20% -52.9% 0% -65.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$53 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$277
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage188d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $99 $68 −$30 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $87 +$44 +50%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $99 −$12 -12%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $30 +$6 +21%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $12 $0 +4%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 24 $16 −$2 -10%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 29 $288 −$288 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 25¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $87 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $87 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $99 11h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 45h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 64¢ $11 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 57¢ $16 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 3d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 3d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY China 25¢ $2 156d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $14 156d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $16 179d
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? BUY No 55¢ $288 182d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 16¢ $10 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.49 · official $98.80 · 28 history records