Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd00a…8126 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$461 (-24%) realized −$624 · open +$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$13
other 49% −$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -32.0% -38.5% 45% 45% -34.0%
≤30d 11 -32.0% -38.5% 45% 45% -34.0%
≤90d 11 -32.0% -38.5% 45% 45% -34.0%
all 11 -32.0% -38.5% 45% 45% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 45% -34.0%
10% -44.4% 36% -40.3%
15% -49.8% 27% -46.1%
20% -54.7% 18% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$117 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$701
Realized−$624
Unrealized+$163
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 100¢ $100 $227 +$127 (+127%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $100 $200 +$100 (+100%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $100 $189 +$89 (+89%)
Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals Yes 15¢ 20¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+33%)
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Yes 20¢ 11¢ $48 $26 −$22 (-45%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 36¢ 4¢ $50 $6 −$44 (-88%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $122 −$120 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $152 +$160 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $235 −$230 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $49 1h
Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $41 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $51 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $101 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 8h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $122 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $101 23h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $201 25h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $235 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701.31 · official $697.30 (match) · 23 history records