Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd00c…8637 other 102 markets active 6d ago coverage 714d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70,289 (-54%) realized −$70,250 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 43L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,284per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$36
14 days−$16
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$69,820
sports 7% −$283
crypto 6% −$247
politics 0% +$91
tech 0% −$70
world 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +36.3% +23.3% 43% 43% +4.0%
≤30d 36 +9.4% -1.0% 39% 39% -16.4%
≤90d 42 -6.2% -15.2% 33% 33% -23.4%
all 78 -16.2% -24.2% 45% 28% -58.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 28% -58.2%
10% -31.5% 27% -62.2%
15% -38.1% 26% -65.9%
20% -44.2% 23% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$1,764 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

714d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized−$70,250
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)78 / 102
History coverage714d
Avg bet$1,284
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 56¢ 66¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+18%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 39¢ 32¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-20%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 27¢ 20¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 46¢ 50¢ $19 $21 +$1 (+8%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 39¢ 34¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 24¢ 20¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? No 32¢ 22¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 55¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 34¢ 36¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 39¢ 42¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 45¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 54¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 47¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 54¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 38¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 34¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-16%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 21¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 24¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 27¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-35%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 35¢ 12¢ $10 $4 −$7 (-64%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 +$21 +216%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$41 +211%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$16 +80%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$11 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$60 +299%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$20 +103%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +206%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +140%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$16 +152%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 +$68 +316%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +109%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? May 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? May 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? May 20 $7 −$6 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? May 20 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $7,976 +$24 +0%
Will Breanna Stewart win the 2025 WNBA MVP? Nov 18 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Nov 18 $342 +$3 +1%
Will the Golden State Valkyries win the 2025 WNBA Championship? Nov 18 $1,382 +$10 +1%
Will the Connecticut Sun win the 2025 WNBA Championship? Aug 26 $2,014 +$11 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 26 $234 −$234 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Jul 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $10 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 41¢ $10 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 55¢ $11 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 23¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 37¢ $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $10 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $11 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $10 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $10 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $9 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $3 6d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $3 6d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 0¢ $1 6d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $2 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 32¢ $10 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 47¢ $11 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $28 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $10 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $10 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $10 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 39¢ $10 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.07 · official $342.27 (match) · 356 history records