Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D0 0xd00f…1ba0 politics 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$154 (+5%) realized +$158 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$501per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$180
politics 19% −$2
other 7% +$49
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.3% +3.4% 100% 33% -1.0%
≤30d 3 +14.3% +3.4% 100% 33% -1.0%
≤90d 3 +14.3% +3.4% 100% 33% -1.0%
all 3 +14.3% +3.4% 100% 33% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 33% -1.0%
10% -6.5% 33% -10.5%
15% ← realistic here -15.5% 0% -19.1%
20% -23.8% 0% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$501
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 65¢ 66¢ $260 $264 +$4 (+2%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $2,232 +$180 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $152 +$48 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 65¢ $260 21m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 50¢ $631 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 45¢ $89 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 17¢ $17 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 31¢ $31 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 29¢ $29 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 28¢ $28 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 29¢ $29 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 28¢ $28 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 23¢ $14 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 25¢ $9 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 63¢ $186 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 19¢ $10 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 50¢ $5 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 54¢ $108 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $34 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $24 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 67¢ $268 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $4 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 69¢ $345 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 67¢ $335 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 72¢ $360 3h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 60¢ $60 3h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 60¢ $120 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 75¢ $375 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 80¢ $320 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 75¢ $300 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 80¢ $345 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 80¢ $30 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 80¢ $106 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.00 · official $280.00 (match) · 64 history records