Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd010…2837 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,226 (-22%) realized −$1,228 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$68
14 days−$127
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,236
world 11% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 100% +24.6%
≤30d 5 +1.4% -8.3% 80% 60% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -14.4% -22.5% 64% 50% -37.9%
all 29 -16.2% -24.2% 52% 45% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 45% -30.6%
10% -31.4% 38% -37.2%
15% -38.0% 31% -43.3%
20% -44.1% 21% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$176 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$1,228
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage179d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Iva Jovic 73¢ 74¢ $248 $250 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $182 +$68 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $255 −$254 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 13 $293 +$58 +20%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 06 $274 +$26 +10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 31 $256 +$102 +40%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 16 $198 +$58 +29%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $181 +$19 +11%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 03 $127 +$61 +48%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $468 −$465 -99%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $591 +$4 +1%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $151 −$151 -100%
Magic vs. Raptors Mar 29 $108 −$108 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $638 −$638 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 25 $39 +$41 +104%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 18 $123 −$123 -100%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 16 $376 +$194 +52%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Utah vs. Blackhawks Mar 12 $108 +$192 +178%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 09 $114 +$36 +32%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 09 $90 +$90 +100%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 24 $93 −$93 -100%
Rio Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Matteo Berrettini Feb 20 $63 $0 +0%
Pacers vs. Wizards Feb 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Feb 16 $63 +$58 +92%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $85 −$85 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Feb 01 $56 +$44 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $79 −$79 -100%
Oregon vs. Indiana Jan 09 $19 −$19 -100%
76ers vs. Mavericks Jan 01 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 73¢ $250 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $182 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 23¢ $207 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 23¢ $48 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 83¢ $293 15d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 91¢ $274 22d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 71¢ $256 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $198 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 90¢ $181 49d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $127 57d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $468 59d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $595 59d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 89¢ $151 62d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $591 68d
Magic vs. Raptors BUY Magic 44¢ $88 84d
Magic vs. Raptors BUY Magic 44¢ $20 84d
Thunder vs. Celtics BUY Thunder 58¢ $116 88d
Thunder vs. Celtics BUY Thunder 58¢ $522 88d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 56¢ $123 95d
Magic vs. Hawks BUY Magic 45¢ $180 97d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Mavericks 66¢ $66 101d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Mavericks 66¢ $310 101d
Utah vs. Blackhawks BUY Blackhawks 36¢ $108 105d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY Liquid 50¢ $90 109d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 76¢ $114 112d
Thunder vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 51¢ $93 117d
Pacers vs. Wizards BUY Pacers 54¢ $54 121d
Rio Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Sonego 50¢ $63 125d
Pistons vs. Raptors BUY Pistons 52¢ $63 130d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY MOUZ 36¢ $85 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.90 · official $249.90 (match) · 52 history records