Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd013…4a7c other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$445 (+1%) realized +$441 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%68W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$573per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$6,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$110
14 days+$223
30 days+$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$176
crypto 23% −$44
other 16% +$71
tech 5% +$99
economics 5% +$9
finance 2% +$9
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 14 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 24 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.1%
all 70 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -8.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.4%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$142 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$6,152
Realized+$441
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses68 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)70 / 76
History coverage216d
Avg bet$573
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,964 $2,972 +$8 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,042 $2,032 −$10 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $336 $339 +$3 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $328 $328 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $270 $268 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $208 $214 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $393 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 22 $326 +$3 +1%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 22 $306 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $4,724 +$96 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 17 $595 +$6 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $604 +$6 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,790 +$96 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $845 +$11 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5,442 +$58 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $4,981 +$55 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 30 $291 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 27 $314 +$3 +1%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $373 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 25 $348 +$6 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $242 +$3 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 16 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 08 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 03 $119 +$2 +2%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $173 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 16 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Apr 11 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 08 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 07 $92 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 07 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 20 $73 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $88 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 16 $98 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Mar 12 $110 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $63 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 09 $98 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Mar 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $238 +$1 +0%
Space FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 06 $90 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 01 $160 $0 +0%
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Feb 14 $73 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 07 $165 +$1 +1%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Feb 06 $78 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 04 $108 +$1 +1%
Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 04 $88 $0 +0%
Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 03 $98 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 30 $165 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 30 $305 −$142 -47%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $308 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? Jan 28 $304 +$1 +0%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 26 $177 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 22 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 23? Jan 22 $148 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 21 $206 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 19 $77 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $2,042 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,964 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $329 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $309 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $328 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $22 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $3 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $22 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $161 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $270 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $393 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $298 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $4,724 8d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $306 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $295 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $336 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $316 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $3,132 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $327 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,790 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $295 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,151.91 · official $6,151.91 (match) · 311 history records