Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:51:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd014…c792 sports 456 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$968 (-6%) realized −$968 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate62%284W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$104
14 days−$201
30 days−$1,571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$788
other 18% −$301
crypto 3% −$84
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -12.5% -20.9% 69% 35% -23.8%
≤30d 386 -11.4% -19.9% 62% 39% -22.1%
≤90d 455 -7.7% -16.5% 62% 39% -16.5%
all 455 -7.7% -16.5% 62% 39% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 39% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 25% -24.5%
15% -31.8% 17% -31.8%
20% -38.5% 9% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$21 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$968
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses284 / 171
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions1
Markets (closed)455 / 456
History coverage46d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $10 −$5 -46%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $50 −$18 -35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$10 +32%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $25 −$12 -46%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 $0 +8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $6 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $21 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$1 +7%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $17 +$1 +5%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 +$6 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32 −$20 -63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +47%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $2 −$2 -88%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $3 $0 +16%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 +$2 +18%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$7 -57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $11 $0 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $11 $0 +3%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 −$4 -58%
Will CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$1 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $9 −$7 -84%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $10 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$3 +48%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +139%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $2 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 35m
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 39¢ $5 39m
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 70¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 97¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? SELL Yes 77¢ $32 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $28 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 0¢ $0 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $40 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 6h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $17 6h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 87¢ $15 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 8h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $1 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 34¢ $9 24h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 94¢ $10 24h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $10 24h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.72 · official $5.73 (match) · 1188 history records