Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd01a…d46b crypto 1767 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-5%) realized −$101 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%1113W / 652L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$127
other 1% −$4
sports 0% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 -6.0% -14.9% 60% 47% -14.4%
≤30d 892 -29.2% -36.0% 46% 38% -35.8%
≤90d 1765 -6.8% -15.7% 63% 48% -16.2%
all 1765 -6.8% -15.7% 63% 48% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 48% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 40% -24.2%
15% -31.1% 32% -31.5%
20% -37.9% 22% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1113 / 652
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1765 / 1767
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1765 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 202 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 38m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.75 · official $11.76 (match) · 3500 history records