Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd01c…7f9d sports 693 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (433 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$7,836 (-5%) realized −$8,247 · open +$411
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%406W / 163L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day432.8pace
Fees−$1,205est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$26,707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$8,115
other 8% +$467
world 1% −$510
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (433 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 569 +29.8% +17.5% 71% 53% -4.0%
≤30d 569 +29.8% +17.5% 71% 53% -4.0%
≤90d 569 +29.8% +17.5% 71% 53% -4.0%
all 569 +29.8% +17.5% 71% 53% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover432.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.5% 53% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here +6.2% 41% -13.2%
15% -4.0% 31% -21.6%
20% -13.4% 22% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +56% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$155 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$26,707
Realized−$8,247
Unrealized+$411
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses406 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1,205
Open positions125
Markets (closed)569 / 693
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$211
Trades / day432.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 125 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Under 96¢ 95¢ $750 $739 −$10 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 84¢ 86¢ $586 $600 +$14 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Under 86¢ 92¢ $511 $550 +$39 (+8%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $499 $537 +$37 (+7%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Haiti 26¢ 28¢ $500 $529 +$29 (+6%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 81¢ 84¢ $500 $518 +$19 (+4%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 98¢ $499 $518 +$19 (+4%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 88¢ 90¢ $500 $514 +$14 (+3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 100¢ $500 $509 +$10 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $499 $508 +$9 (+2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 91¢ $499 $505 +$6 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ 81¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Under 91¢ 92¢ $500 $502 +$3 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Under 92¢ 92¢ $505 $502 −$3 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 90¢ $499 $502 +$3 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 97¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Under 97¢ 98¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 86¢ $499 $497 −$3 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $499 $496 −$3 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $509 $495 −$14 (-3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 95¢ $475 $475 +$1 (+0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 85¢ 100¢ $329 $386 +$58 (+18%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Under 92¢ 93¢ $373 $377 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 +$1 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $483 +$6 +1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $500 +$782 +156%
Panama to win the second half? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +37%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 +$1 +43%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $125 +$12 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $129 +$10 +8%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $125 +$41 +33%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $125 +$17 +14%
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $124 +$59 +47%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $504 +$16 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $249 +$147 +59%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $249 +$41 +16%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $124 +$25 +20%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $619 +$14 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $505 +$50 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $506 +$135 +27%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $249 +$25 +10%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $162 −$162 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $374 −$374 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $504 −$504 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $505 −$505 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $128 +$239 +186%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $125 +$106 +85%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $128 +$41 +32%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $130 +$59 +45%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $35 +$6 +18%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $265 +$14 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $81 +$8 +10%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $325 +$108 +33%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2,011 +$38 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $695 +$695 +100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $8 +$6 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $146 −$146 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $163 −$163 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $250 +$173 +70%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $347 +$591 +170%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $128 +$38 +29%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $375 +$64 +17%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,772 +$724 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $181 +$38 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $34 2m
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $125 6m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $47 9m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $23 9m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $32 9m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 10m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $47 10m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 10m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $83 11m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $16 38m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $290 38m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $14 54m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $13 54m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $500 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $3 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $250 1h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY No 80¢ $126 1h
Colombia to win the second half? SELL No 40¢ $2 1h
Colombia to win the second half? SELL No 40¢ $15 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $8 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $22 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 53¢ $29 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 99¢ $490 1h
Colombia to win the second half? BUY No 40¢ $7 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $88 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $11 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $185 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1 1h
Colombia to win the second half? BUY No 40¢ $68 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,707.07 · official $26,708.81 (match) · 3500 history records