Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd020…2d96 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$37 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%27W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$393
14 days+$279
30 days+$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$19
world 21% −$137
sports 21% +$266
crypto 21% −$180
politics 3% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +12.6% +1.9% 74% 57% +1.9%
≤30d 28 +5.7% -4.3% 68% 50% -2.7%
≤90d 28 +5.7% -4.3% 68% 50% -2.7%
all 53 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 34% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 34% -9.6%
10% -21.5% 23% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 19% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$37 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage138d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? No 96¢ 96¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $126 +$28 +22%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Jun 21 $130 −$11 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$13 +62%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $30 +$11 +35%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Germany win on 20 Jun 20 $20 +$13 +63%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $585 +$56 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $479 +$6 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$17 +51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND United States to score first Jun 19 $22 +$11 +49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $321 +$51 +16%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $52 −$29 -57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $81 −$30 -37%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek Jun 18 $22 +$8 +36%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $160 +$5 +3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 +$18 +46%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 −$35 -42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $161 +$21 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $250 +$6 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $123 +$36 +29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$9 -27%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $115 +$17 +14%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $198 +$215 +108%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $141 −$28 -20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$33 -84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $150 +$8 +5%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 08 $161 −$76 -47%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during O Mar 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 19 $457 −$5 -1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $291 −$149 -51%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 03 $651 −$143 -22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 03 $216 −$23 -11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $243 −$27 -11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $75 +$36 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $583 −$67 -11%
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in F Feb 28 $358 +$8 +2%
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? Feb 28 $154 +$212 +138%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $191 −$37 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Feb 24 $203 −$12 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Feb 24 $169 +$35 +21%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 23 $155 +$13 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Feb 21 $142 +$13 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Feb 21 $137 +$5 +4%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Feb 20 $388 −$114 -29%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 09 $436 −$17 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 09 $717 −$23 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 4 Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 5 Feb 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 96¢ $250 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $126 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: SELL 81¢ $120 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: BUY 87¢ $130 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 AND W BUY 76¢ $35 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 73¢ $30 24h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half BUY 72¢ $27 28h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $283 29h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $301 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $479 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 60¢ $20 33h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 66¢ $33 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND United States to score first SELL 94¢ $33 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND United States to score first BUY 62¢ $22 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $221 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Over 18¢ $22 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $52 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 49¢ $51 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $81 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek BUY 73¢ $22 4d
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 97¢ $160 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL 41¢ $50 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 69¢ $85 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 88¢ $161 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $250 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $123 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.48 · official $249.48 (match) · 159 history records