Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd022…3834 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 827d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,075 (+7%) realized +$2,387 · open −$312
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$787per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days−$1,830
14 days−$1,830
30 days+$994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$414
other 34% −$879
politics 18% +$406
culture 7% +$1,363
crypto 6% +$246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 50% -26.7%
≤30d 8 +14.4% +3.5% 62% 62% -2.7%
≤90d 10 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% -6.8%
all 37 +2.6% -7.1% 51% 49% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 49% -3.5%
10% -16.0% 49% -12.8%
15% -24.1% 49% -21.2%
20% -31.6% 49% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,014) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$581 vs −$510 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

827d coverage
Net worth$688
Realized+$2,387
Unrealized−$312
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage827d
Avg bet$787
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $1,000 $688 −$312 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,055 +$739 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,535 −$2,500 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,023 −$1,009 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,014 +$907 +89%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,027 +$1,609 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,037 −$1,576 -77%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,558 +$926 +59%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,019 +$1,898 +94%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $498 −$490 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 25 $202 −$122 -60%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 19 $400 +$333 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 18 $200 +$104 +52%
Sabres vs. Golden Knights Mar 18 $200 +$106 +53%
Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 233.5 Mar 18 $343 +$228 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 18 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Sharks vs. Oilers Mar 18 $800 +$526 +66%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $1,700 −$1,181 -70%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $300 +$556 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 16 $195 +$242 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 16 $200 +$202 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 16 $100 +$198 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 16 $0 $0 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Mar 16 $472 −$472 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 16 $160 +$387 +242%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2,002 +$1,363 +68%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $5,066 +$171 +3%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Oct 21 $206 −$206 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Oct 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Cowboys vs. Steelers Oct 21 $388 −$322 -83%
Ravens vs. Bengals Oct 07 $421 +$315 +75%
Who will win the VP debate according to polls? Oct 06 $330 +$236 +71%
Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Oct 06 $270 −$144 -54%
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Oct 06 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,018 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,794 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,055 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,523 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,012 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $1,023 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,921 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $2,027 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $461 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2,037 5d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 100¢ $2,484 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 61¢ $506 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 60¢ $1,052 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,917 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,522 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $91 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $406 18d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 43¢ $498 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $82 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $78 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $20 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $100 84d
Penguins vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $733 90d
Penguins vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 54¢ $86 90d
Penguins vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $64 90d
Penguins vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 55¢ $250 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $304 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $200 91d
Sabres vs. Golden Knights SELL Sabres 100¢ $306 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.50 · official $712.50 · 100 history records