trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 100% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +28.1% | +15.9% | 50% | 25% | +16.6% |
| all | 18 | -7.4% | -16.2% | 17% | 6% | -16.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.2% | 6% | -16.9% |
| 10% | -24.2% | 6% | -24.9% |
| 15% | -31.5% | 6% | -32.1% |
| 20% | -38.2% | 6% | -38.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $42 | $42 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun | Jun 11 | $85 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 04 | $79 | $0 | -0% |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders | Apr 15 | $129 | +$145 | +113% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 01 | $206 | −$1 | -1% |
| Murcia: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena | Mar 22 | $326 | −$326 | -100% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 18 | $197 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | Mar 18 | $98 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? | Mar 14 | $294 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Mar 09 | $4 | −$2 | -40% |
| Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? | Mar 09 | $4 | −$1 | -30% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Mar 05 | $291 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Feb 28 | $296 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 24 | $5 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Feb 20 | $5 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 20 | $10 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Feb 18 | $14 | −$5 | -36% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 17 | $12 | −$2 | -13% |
| Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 16 | $323 | −$2 | -0% |