Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd024…daed other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$194 (-8%) realized −$194 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$189
other 28% −$1
politics 13% −$1
crypto 4% $0
world 2% $0
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 4 +28.1% +15.9% 50% 25% +16.6%
all 18 -7.4% -16.2% 17% 6% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 6% -16.9%
10% -24.2% 6% -24.9%
15% -31.5% 6% -32.1%
20% -38.2% 6% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$23 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage129d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $79 $0 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Apr 15 $129 +$145 +113%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $206 −$1 -1%
Murcia: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Mar 22 $326 −$326 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 14 $294 +$2 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 09 $4 −$2 -40%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $4 −$1 -30%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $291 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 28 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $5 $0 -6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 20 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $14 −$5 -36%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $12 −$2 -13%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $323 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $42 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 93¢ $86 13d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 92¢ $85 32d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $79 50d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $79 54d
Hurricanes vs. Islanders BUY Hurricanes 47¢ $129 70d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $205 84d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $206 86d
Murcia: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 64¢ $326 95d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $197 98d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 98d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 100d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $197 100d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $296 101d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $294 104d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $2 106d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $3 106d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $4 108d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $4 108d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $290 111d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $291 112d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $295 115d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $98 117d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $197 117d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 120d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 121d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes $4 124d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $9 124d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes $5 125d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $10 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.77 · official $41.77 (match) · 51 history records