Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd026…ec2f crypto 103 markets active 5d ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23,447 (-11%) realized −$23,786 · open +$339
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%41W / 61L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,991per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$2,824est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31,745
14 days−$26,990
30 days−$26,990
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$14,127
other 25% −$7,601
crypto 6% −$6,684
finance 4% −$1,692
tech 0% −$17
economics 0% +$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -23.3% -30.6% 47% 28% -67.7%
≤30d 76 -26.0% -33.1% 41% 32% -26.8%
≤90d 102 -15.9% -23.9% 40% 33% -22.8%
all 102 -15.9% -23.9% 40% 33% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 33% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 28% -30.2%
15% -37.8% 25% -37.0%
20% -43.9% 18% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$2,026) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$747 vs −$997 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$509
Realized−$23,786
Unrealized+$339
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses41 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$2,824
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1,991
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 13¢ $170 $509 +$339 (+200%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $103 +$50 +49%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 13 $841 −$841 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 13 $521 −$521 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 Jun 13 $3,065 −$3,065 -100%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $931 +$28 +3%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $567 +$27 +5%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $101 +$38 +37%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $304 +$1 +0%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $204 −$155 -76%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $310 −$17 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,854 +$54 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2,909 −$1,091 -38%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $115 −$42 -36%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $1,385 −$750 -54%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $1,165 +$216 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$84 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$82 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$47 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$86 +83%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama Jun 11 $710 +$635 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $206 +$130 +63%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $561 +$35 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $153 +$237 +155%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30,384 −$27,288 -90%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $2,026 +$1,077 +53%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $302 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$20 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +27%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $261 −$261 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $2,038 +$484 +24%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2,121 +$370 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20,166 +$7,488 +37%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $27,339 +$5,282 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$57 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$17 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $4,106 +$3,983 +97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $5,117 −$370 -7%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $189 +$1,166 +617%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $9,173 +$1,942 +21%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $205 +$134 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 23¢ $102 4d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 50¢ $30 4d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 60¢ $405 4d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 63¢ $303 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 7¢ $103 4d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Harriet Dart 44¢ $153 5d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 14¢ $103 5d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 1¢ $10 5d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 4¢ $41 5d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 13¢ $31 5d
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo SELL Tristan Boyer 99¢ $959 5d
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 96¢ $931 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $577 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 62¢ $101 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 43¢ $102 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 57¢ $101 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 46¢ $102 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 80¢ $161 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 59¢ $5 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 58¢ $254 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 58¢ $46 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 57¢ $304 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Dayana Yastremska 6¢ $50 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 16¢ $103 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 46¢ $102 5d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Oriol Roca Batalla 99¢ $132 5d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 71¢ $101 5d
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I SELL Yes 36¢ $160 5d
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I SELL Yes 36¢ $70 5d
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I SELL Yes 36¢ $63 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.38 · official $509.38 (match) · 376 history records