Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd028…2b7f world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$901 (-7%) realized −$901 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%20W / 48L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$26
14 days+$19
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$930
world 35% +$23
sports 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 6% −$11
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 27 +31.4% +18.9% 37% 7% -8.9%
≤90d 60 +41.5% +28.0% 32% 5% -9.7%
all 68 +34.5% +21.7% 29% 4% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.7% 4% -16.8%
10% +10.1% 3% -24.7%
15% -0.6% 3% -32.0%
20% -10.3% 3% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$32 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$901
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses20 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage177d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 18 $210 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $191 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $400 +$13 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $196 +$13 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $193 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $167 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $188 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $393 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $178 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $323 −$3 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $142 +$3 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $185 +$6 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $210 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $166 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $70 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $290 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $146 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $147 −$4 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $32 +$5 +16%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $156 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $156 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $10 −$4 -37%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $168 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $500 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $342 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $73 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $157 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $188 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $2 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $117 −$1 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $6 $0 +2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $270 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $235 −$26 -11%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $220 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $210 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $210 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $178 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $13 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $191 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $66 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $79 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $123 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $139 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $206 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $196 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $147 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $48 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $96 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $38 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.58 · official $0.00 · 345 history records