Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd029…4fc1 crypto 1428 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14,714 (+122%) realized +$14,599 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%827W / 593L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$5
30 days+$4,537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$14,476
crypto 23% +$36
tech 18% +$12
world 2% +$100
politics 2% +$3
finance 1% +$10
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 100% +37.7%
≤30d 6 +74.7% +58.1% 67% 50% +412.7%
≤90d 1420 +0.4% -9.2% 58% 51% +125.7%
all 1420 +0.4% -9.2% 58% 51% +125.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 51% +125.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 35% +104.1%
15% -25.8% 24% +84.4%
20% -33.1% 18% +66.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +150% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +150% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$2 · ×10.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.5 per $1 lost it wins $14.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$2,435
Realized+$14,599
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses827 / 593
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1420 / 1428
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $1,118 $1,122 +$5 (+0%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $490 $505 +$15 (+3%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 61¢ 98¢ $180 $288 +$108 (+60%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 80¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? Yes 46¢ 26¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-42%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-55%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 67¢ 6¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $93 +$7 +7%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $829 +$4,535 +547%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 21 $1 $0 +13%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 20 $1,538 +$5,172 +336%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $998 +$3,371 +338%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $7 +$3 +39%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,579 +$920 +58%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 14 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Tim Cook attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $12 +$1 +8%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 14 $1,458 +$489 +34%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $186 +$7 +4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $37 +$10 +28%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 09 $19 −$19 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $37 +$2 +7%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 03 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $17 +$2 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $18 +$2 +11%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $4 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 26 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 26 $2 +$2 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$18 +1233%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $48 4m
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $163 51m
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $240 1h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $89 1h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $427 1h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $96 1h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $55 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $96 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $134 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $261 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $501 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $50 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $50 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 13d
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb BUY Yes 50¢ $10 24d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $80 24d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 25d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 25d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 25d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 25d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $295 25d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 25d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 25d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,920 25d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,241 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 31d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d BUY Yes 22¢ $4 32d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d BUY Yes 22¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,434.89 · official $2,434.89 (match) · 3500 history records