Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd030…2133 sports 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$885 (-21%) realized −$886 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%54W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$46
14 days−$85
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$537
other 27% −$425
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +4.8% -5.1% 36% 36% -23.2%
≤30d 47 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 36% -31.7%
≤90d 173 -15.7% -23.7% 31% 30% -30.6%
all 173 -15.7% -23.7% 31% 30% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 30% -30.6%
10% -31.0% 30% -37.2%
15% -37.7% 30% -43.3%
20% -43.8% 30% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$23 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$886
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses54 / 119
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 177
History coverage78d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $21 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$16 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$55 +360%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$46 +237%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $14 +$25 +172%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$33 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$18 +165%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$25 -70%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 −$18 -89%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $34 −$33 -98%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $24 −$23 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $17 −$17 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $55 −$54 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $10 +$15 +146%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $13 −$13 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $15 +$20 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $10 +$8 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets May 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks May 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Magda Linette May 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $20 +$11 +55%
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula May 26 $37 +$44 +120%
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima May 26 $15 +$10 +67%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $20 +$16 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann May 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $8 +$7 +86%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$68 +649%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Barbora Krejcikova May 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 24 $7 −$1 -20%
Roland Garros WTA: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Caty McNally May 24 $10 +$17 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Gabriel Diallo May 24 $12 −$12 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $14 +$9 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorer May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 26h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 58¢ $21 30h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 44¢ $15 33h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $20 43h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $14 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY $6 2d
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $71 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 4d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $20 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AND Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY $3 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end BUY $10 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $42 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $34 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $11 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $36 7d
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes $2 7d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 25¢ $34 14d
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 14¢ $24 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $29.73 (match) · 307 history records